REAR BOLT FRACTURES: Numbers/Percentages/Facts

CareerFiremanGuy · Jan 19, 2024

Number Of Vehicles Effected -------------------------- 236,803 (reported 12/23)
Number Of Fractures ------------------------------------------- 396 (reported 10/23)
Percentage Of Reported Breaks ------------------------------ 0.16%
Percentage Without Reported Breaks --------------------- 99.84%

The chances of not experiencing a bolt fracture currently stands at 99.84%

Sure, no one wants to be in the 0.16% that do have an issue. But those are the numbers.

*interesting note:
By April 2022 FORD was aware of 235 warranty claims involving rear axle bolts, by Oct 2023 that number grew to 396 (an additional 161 claims over 18 more months)

CareerFiremanGuy · Jan 21, 2024

I was thinking about how much FORD's official repair (per 22S27) is costing FORD, so I ran some quick numbers ...

Dealer Labor: $250 (2.5 hrs / replace bolt & bushing only / warranty labor rate ~$100/hr US)
Parts: $28.23 (Revised Bushing L1MZ-4B425-D $22.83 US/ Diff Rear Cover Housing Bolt To Subframe W720988-S439 $5.40 US)
Number Of Vehicles Involved: 236,803

so ...

$278.23 Total Parts/Labor
x 236,803 Vehicles
------------------------
$65,885,698.00

That's 65 million dollars, ouch FORD!

J368 · Jan 21, 2024

CareerFiremanGuy said:

I was thinking about how much FORD's official repair (per 22S27) is costing FORD, so I ran some quick numbers ...

Dealer Labor: $250 (2.5 hrs / replace bolt & bushing only / warranty labor rate ~$100/hr US)
Parts: $28.23 (Revised Bushing L1MZ-4B425-D $22.83 US/ Diff Rear Cover Housing Bolt To Subframe W720988-S439 $5.40 US)
Number Of Vehicles Involved: 236,803

so ...

$278.23 Total Parts/Labor
x 236,803 Vehicles
------------------------
$65,885,698.00

That's 65 million dollars, ouch FORD!

Sounds like Ford was penny wise and pound foolish. Came bike to bite them in a big way...

Boyd · Jan 22, 2024

Those are big numbers! But when you consider the grand scheme, Ford probably makes at least several thousand dollars clear profit on each vehicle. And when you compare those numbers, 65M might not seem like so much.

Ford sold about 2M vehicles in 2023. If they only make avg $2000 profit on each, thats over $4B. Even just on the 236,803 under this recall, its $473M.

And I'm willing to bet Ford has $$ squirreled away for this exact purpose, so it doesn't affect the bottom line at all.

CareerFiremanGuy · Jan 22, 2024

J368 said:

As much as I've been a long time FORD guy, I have to say I'm not surprised.

I remember snapping several 7.5" rear end ring gears on a Fox body Stang until FORD introduced the 8.8" rear axle assembly. It was offered by SVO, which I then purchased and installed myself. Problem solved. Then there was the infamous "World Class T-5 Transmission" whose torque rating barely exceeded the V8's torque output, resulting in the failures of the 2nd gear synchro, the 3rd gear synchro, and then any other synchro after that. lol

If I remember corretly, the owners "fix" for that was to once again to go to SVO and purchase the T-5 through them, where I believe they dropped the steep 3.35 first gear in favor of a 2.95 ratio which reduced internal stresses.

And yet for some reason through all this, I'm still a FORD guy! Go figure ...

Boyd said:

You make a valid point, in the overall scheme of things 65 million may not be a ton of $$ to the automakers.

Now imagine if they had to replace every rear subframe with the 2/4 bolt. Some people here did this and I think with parts/labor they said it would've cost FORD ~$5k.

So if we take 236,803 vehicles multiplied by $5,000 ... that equals $1,184,015,000. That's billion. So compared to 65 million, they probably figured they made out.

Kevin_FG23 · Jan 22, 2024

A good question would be: how many pre-2023 "single bolt" units were produced after they realized they had a problem, and could they have realistically switched the production back to the "two bolt" design to avoid some of this drama and ongoing skepticism?

Or, better yet....scrambled together a "tiger team" of engineers to introduce the "improved bushing" for the single-bolt subframe sooner in the 2022 (or maybe even 2021) model year runs?

CareerFiremanGuy · Jan 23, 2024

Kevin_FG23 said:

Good questions, of which we'll probably never get the answers to.

I have some guesses as to the potential causes for the delay:

identifying the issue
compiling data as to exactly which vehicles were affected
determining the proper "fix"
organizing the manufacture/purchase/delivery of the 236,803 updated parts

Boyd · Jan 24, 2024

For those interested in the chronology of how Ford works these recalls...

It seems Ford originally considered the EPB auto engagement a fix to the broken bolts. PIU's were getting new bolts & bushings because they use a cable park brake and the software fix obviously wouldnt work. Seems Ford considered the potential for roll-away to be the problem, and not the actual bolt breakage. At least until the number of failures grew.

Not hammering Ford, just found the history and chronology interesting.

We havent gotten a letter yet, but according to the NHTSA website (https://www.nhtsa.gov/recalls), the latest says parts are now available.

Edit: Also interesting that this doc begins in April of '22, and thats the cutoff for the recall. So they did make a change very soon after they knew they had a problem. Even with one as statistically small as this one.

Celt · Jan 24, 2024

Ive read a bit about snapping the 3 bolt rear issue on here. If Im reading the posts above correctly it seems that Ford made a revised 3 bolt bushing in 22 at some point. Is the 3 bolt still an issue for vehicles made after the revised bushing?

I will likely add a tune in the future, but nothing too aggressive. I like my 0-60 sprints, but really shes a daily driver, so Im wondering if I will need an aftermarket brace to play it safe.

Stone17 · Jan 25, 2024

Here is the PDF of the Ford Recall services.

Ford is replacing any bolt that is removed.

marksst · Jan 27, 2024

CareerFiremanGuy said:

Cool info. When it happened to mine (bushing broke), Ford replaced the entire rear subframe. Told dealer not to replace the bushing only. And the wanted the rear subframe back for analysis. That was a much higher cost repair.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

CareerFiremanGuy · Jan 27, 2024

Boyd said:

I don't think anyone believes that FORD considered the EPB a "fix", just an emergency procedure to prevent roll away until they got a handle on what was what.

The updated recall 23S55 shows the latest date for Explorers that need the fix is July 6, 2022 (my ST was made July 7th and has the fix).

Celt said:

According to FORD, they no longer see vehicles built with the new bushing/bolt as an issue as mine already had the updated parts and I never got the recall letter.

If people want a 3rd party 500+ hp tune, then I'd say they should get a brace.

With FP tuned vehicles the 3/36 warranty is retained on your drivetrain so you're good to go. The FP tune got me to 60 mph in 4.7 sec and a 13.1 sec quarter, nice.

CareerFiremanGuy · Jan 30, 2024

FYI: 396 reported breaks out of 236,803 effected vehicles equals 1 reported bolt fracture for every 598 vehicles.

Yup, you read that right. 1/598

Boyd · Jan 31, 2024

CareerFiremanGuy said:

I disagree. Per the chronology, after the actions of April '22, Ford was set. They addressed the roll-away issue, which, evidently, is what they considered the main issue to be. In the instances of bolt breakage, the vehicles indications were severe enough that the customer would notice and get the car fixed before a roll-away could occur. The NHTSA set Ford in the direction of bolt fracture repair / replacement / recall actions in Sept '23 when they actually addressed the bolt breakage, not just the roll-away. Only then did Ford enact recall procedures.

I dont have any monkeys in this fight, just found the chronology interesting and thought someone else might also.

CareerFiremanGuy · Feb 4, 2024

Boyd said:

I don't make use of any monkeys either in my discussions, so on that count, we're on the same page.

And while we're still wondering why FORD changed from the 2/4 set up, proving their intentions were final with the EPB application is going to be next to impossible.

Because by April '22, FORD only received 235 claims for bolt fractures out of a 1/4 of a million vehicles. By Oct. '23, that number barely changed statistically with 396 claims. So it's tough to say FORD formally addressed the issue via the EPB at a point when the failure rate was at 0.167%.

Understand that I'm not defending any manufacturer for refusing to address a known issue (just look at Dodge with their ongoing hemi "tick/valvetrain" problems). But I'm also not ready to say FORD was wiping their hands clean with the EPB change. I don't think that anyone can rightfully make that claim with any certitude.

Boyd · Feb 5, 2024

OK.

I'm going driving.

UNBROKEN · Feb 5, 2024

Boyd said:

While you’re out driving, find a rock and smash your head against it. That’s the same effect trying to reason with careerfucktard up there will get you. lol

Dale5403 · Feb 5, 2024

Boyd said:

Looks like you will be the next member that Firestarter blocks. Welcome to the club.

CareerFiremanGuy · Feb 6, 2024

A drive sounds good to me too.

I appreciate your comments Boyd, seeing nobody else bothered to post their thoughts on the topic.

Kevin_FG23 · Feb 6, 2024

Ford's Root Cause Analyis below.
(referring to the webbed design of bushing L1MW-4B425-BA , in comparison to the new "solid metal core" bushing provided via the latest recall, and as OEM on '23 models):

"The joint design is not robust to peak axle input torques and manufacturing variability. The primary contributor is insufficient bearing area for maximum joint loads. This results in bearing area deformation, increasing bending stress on the bolt, which may lead to a fatigue failure."

Source: Part 573 Safety Recall Report 23V-675

RCLRPT-23V675-7191.PDF (nhtsa.gov)

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REAR BOLT FRACTURES: Numbers/Percentages/Facts

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