So I'm a practicing Engineer in the IT world. I'm also a PMP certified Manager, and I do Risk Management on all the multimillion dollar Programs I manage for the DoD. As part of my Risk Management, you're always analyzing risks....by doing the following:
1. identify risks
2. analyze the Probability of them occurring (P)
3. analyze the Impact if they occur (|)
4. assign a risk priority (Priority = P x I)
5. determine/identify ways to mitigate the risk (avoid it if it's a negative risk, exploit it if it's a positive risk...and yes, some risks do have positive outcomes!)
6. should the risk occur, identify a contingency plan(s) to deal with the negative results of the occurrence
7. build a risk register that contains all the risks, their probabilities, their impacts, their priorities, the mitigation and contingency plans...."racked and stacked" by priority number (higher priority numbers warrant more action/watching)
8. monitor that risk register and take action as needed
With that in mind, if I was managing this Ford Explorer ST "fiasco", one of the many things that would be on my risk register (along with chip shortages, transportation issues, plant shutdowns, etc, etc)....would be THIS scenario:
- I've got a backlog of 100s or 1000s of Explorer STs.....waiting to be shipped (and perhaps some, waiting to be built?) ...in storage. ASSUMING THAT STORAGE IS OUTSIDE....and I'm pretty sure it is....here's one of my identified risks and my assessment:
1. I identify I have 100s or 1000s of Explorer STs sitting OUTSIDE....in the weather...waiting on parts or shipment. If bad weather comes along.....like hail....that means those 100s or 1000s of brand new Explorer STs...that have been waiting for shipment.....and waiting on customers to buy....and US TO RECOUP OUR MONEY.....are at risk of damage
2. probability of it happening....perhaps low in the beginning? But the longer they sit outside....especially in the volatile weather that can be Spring....the more likely it could happen over time
3. impact.....if this risk event occurs...100s or 1000s of cars....basically ALL OF THEM SITTING IN THAT LOT....are damaged and can't be sold (not at full retail anyway). The financial loss (and loss of customers) ...COULD BE HUGE
4. risk priority.....low P times HIGH I (the loss on all those cars would be huge).....gives you a somewhat moderate INITIAL Priority. BUT AS TIME GOES BY....the likelihood of this random event (hail).....keeps increasing over time (the longer they sit outside....day after day). Think about it.....sooner or later....almost all of us see some hail where we live.....over a longer period of time....as storms come and go. It's just the random chance the BAD storm hits YOUR location. So Priority (for taking action)....is INCREASING over time...as the longer period of exposure to weather....slightly increases the odds of it actually finally happening some time in the future.
5. Mitigation......try to ship quicker (may not be possible due to transportation issues).....try to find a covered lot (probably too expensive or there isn't one big enough)...get insurance should it happen to lessen losses (they likely ARE doing this.....is my guess?)....etc.
6. Contingency plan.....I guess.....is either offer cars for sale with hail damage at a reduced price (not even sure they can/will do this?).....plan on rebuilding ALL THOSE CARS (think about that one for a minute....think about how backed up they already are.....that would be "the perfect storm" ....sorry for the pun).
Obviously, NONE of the contingency plans have a GOOD outcome. Nor are their many good mitigation plans. THE REAL ANSWER ....in my mind....is get those damn cars off the lot BEFORE the disaster occurs. So they're rolling the dice an event like that....bad weather....won't happen. BUT IF IT DID.............what a disaster. Every day those cars sit out there, is another day....you're taking a risk. Sometimes, companies decide the risk is worth the reward. Perhaps, that's how Ford sees this? Surely if I've thought about it....since they are in the business of selling cars....surely they've long ago thought of this. Or maybe they have some plan I don't know of.....since I'm not in the car business.....I'm an IT guy.
Sorry, but that's how I'm trained to think in doing my job. I'm trained to think "how can this go wrong"...."how can I avoid it"....and if it does occur, "what can i do as a contingency plan". I sure hope it doesn't happen....or.....that they finally ship my car. Mine has already sat their in that lot a LONGGGGG time.....BUILT....since 14 March. That's 67 days my car has sat in the weather....rolling the dice.....hoping and praying that "perfect storm" doesn't come along............. (along with all the other risks- interest rates rising, car damaged in shipment, lose my job....wait...that already happened...but got another one, etc.)